Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nazem KadriGoals1
- Devon ToewsAssists2
- Devon ToewsPoints2
Golden Knights- William KarlssonGoals1
- Kaedan KorczakAssists2
- Mark StonePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:01Brett Howden Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (4), Shea Theodore (6)3–5
- P38:21Tomas Hertl Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (5), Kaedan Korczak (3)3–4
- P212:46Keegan Kolesar Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Dylan Coghlan (1), Kaedan Korczak (2)3–3
- P24:05William Karlsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (14)3–2
- P20:19Mark Stone Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (13), Tomas Hertl (6)3–1
- P113:15Jack Drury Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Parker Kelly (2), Devon Toews (9)3–0
- P17:03Nazem Kadri Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (11), Josh Manson (3)2–0
- P13:21Gabriel Landeskog Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (8), Nathan MacKinnon (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:21Gabriel Landeskog Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (8), Nathan MacKinnon (8)COL 1 – 0 VGK · COL 57% → 71% +14COL 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P17:03Nazem Kadri Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (11), Josh Manson (3)COL 2 – 0 VGK · COL 71% → 83% +12COL 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P24:05William Karlsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (14)COL 3 – 2 VGK · VGK 14% → 27% +13VGK 14% → 27%+13 pts
- P212:46Keegan Kolesar Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Dylan Coghlan (1), Kaedan Korczak (2)COL 3 – 3 VGK · VGK 25% → 45% +20VGK 25% → 45%+20 pts
- P38:21Tomas Hertl Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (5), Kaedan Korczak (3)COL 3 – 4 VGK · VGK 47% → 77% +30VGK 47% → 77%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 57%
- ML COL -148 / VGK +124
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- COL: Elo 52.5%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -134
- VGK +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 3.0 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1595 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +6 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +17 Elo | COL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.3% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 88.4%28th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3229–12 | Road vs home | 20–2121st of 32 |
| 30th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149432nd of 32 |
| 1st of 321595 | Elo rating | 15407th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–46 | 42–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 46–46 | 23–52 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 19–2 |
| Overs–unders | 41–52 | 47–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–6 VGK in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- May 22VGK 3 @ COL 1PlayoffsPicked COL 63%Miss
- May 20VGK 4 @ COL 2PlayoffsPicked COL 61%Miss
- Apr 11VGK 3 @ COL 2Picked COL 54%Miss
- Dec 27COL 6 @ VGK 5Picked COL 58%Hit
- Oct 31COL 4 @ VGK 2Picked COL 56%Hit
- Apr 8VGK 2 @ COL 3Picked COL 59%Hit
- Nov 27VGK 1 @ COL 2Picked COL 60%Hit
- Oct 9COL 4 @ VGK 8Picked VGK 51%Hit