Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast

Final/OTESPN

Away

Panthers

1-0-0

1–0

at

Home

Hurricanes

0-0-1

FLA 46%CAR 54%

You didn't pick this one.

Lenovo Center · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors CAR.

CAR75%50%75%FLAStartP1P2P3Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Hurricanes

    Scoring summary

    • OT4:55Gustav Forsling Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (1)1–0

    Turning points

    The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. OT4:55Gustav Forsling Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (1)FLA 1 – 0 CAR · FLA 50% → 100% +50

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Hurricanes 54%

    Toss-upMiss
    FLA 46%CAR 54%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

    Market
    CAR 54%
    ML FLA +110 / CAR -130
    Pre-line forecast
    CAR 66%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    CAR 65%
    Ratings vs. market
    +10.7 pts
    CAR: Elo 65.0%, market 54.3%
    Fair odds
    CAR -119
    FLA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    FLA 3.1 – 3.4 CAR
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorFLACARWhy
    Team rating15081582Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+8+6FLA: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsCAR +107 EloCAR 65.0%
    Market-implied ratingsCAR 65.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastCAR 65.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastCAR 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes compared, with each team's league rank
    FLAStatCAR
    18th of 323.1Goals scored3.62nd of 32
    28th of 323.4Goals allowed2.94th of 32
    24th of 32−0.3Margin+0.73rd of 32
    10th of 3251.1%Shot share57.3%1st of 32
    27th of 3288.5%Save percentage88.6%26th of 32
    16th of 325–5Last 107–32nd of 32
    24th of 3217–24Road vs home29–121st of 32
    10th of 321503Opponent Elo149821st of 32
    12th of 321510Elo rating16091st of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    PanthersHurricanes
    14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    Last season (2025-26)FLACAR
    Puck line30–5243–58
    Last 106–45–5
    Favorite9–4036–56
    Underdog21–127–2
    Overs–unders47–3552–49
    Overs–unders, last 106–45–5

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    FLA 9–5 CAR in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.