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Carolina Hurricanes at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast

FinalCAR wins series 4-2

Away

Hurricanes

53-22-7

3–0

at

Home

Golden Knights

39-26-17

CAR 51%VGK 49%

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T-Mobile Arena · ABC

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.

VGK favored CAR favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3VGK50%CAR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Hurricanes
Golden Knights

    Scoring summary

    • P318:52Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: none3–0
    • P213:31Jackson Blake Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (5)2–0
    • P13:47Taylor Hall Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (5), Jackson Blake (13)1–0

    Turning points

    The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P13:47Taylor Hall Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (5), Jackson Blake (13)CAR 1 – 0 VGK · CAR 51% → 66% +15
    2. P213:31Jackson Blake Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (5)CAR 2 – 0 VGK · CAR 71% → 87% +15
    3. P318:52Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: noneCAR 3 – 0 VGK · CAR >99% → >99% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Hurricanes 51%

    Toss-upHit
    CAR 51%VGK 49%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

    Market
    CAR 51%
    ML CAR -115 / VGK -105
    Pre-line forecast
    CAR 49%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    CAR 54%
    Ratings vs. market
    +3.4 pts
    CAR: Elo 54.4%, market 51.1%
    Fair odds
    CAR -104
    VGK +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    CAR 2.8 – 2.7 VGK
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorCARVGKWhy
    Team rating16051544Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+3−2CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsCAR +31 EloCAR 54.4%
    Market-implied ratingsVGK 52.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastVGK 50.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastCAR 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights compared, with each team's league rank
    CARStatVGK
    2nd of 323.6Goals scored3.214th of 32
    4th of 322.9Goals allowed3.013th of 32
    3rd of 32+0.7Margin+0.213th of 32
    1st of 3257.3%Shot share54.3%3rd of 32
    26th of 3288.6%Save percentage88.4%28th of 32
    2nd of 327–3Last 107–32nd of 32
    2nd of 3224–17Road vs home20–2121st of 32
    21st of 321498Opponent Elo149432nd of 32
    1st of 321605Elo rating15446th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    HurricanesGolden Knights
    14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonCARVGK
    Puck line42–5846–57
    Last 104–67–3
    Favorite35–5623–53
    Underdog7–223–4
    Overs–unders52–4852–51
    Overs–unders, last 106–45–5

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    CAR 7–4 VGK in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.