Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Justin SourdifGoals1
- Boone JennerAssists1
- Justin SourdifPoints1
Lightning- Jake GuentzelGoals1
- Jake GuentzelAssists2
- Jake GuentzelPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:55Jake Guentzel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (1), John Carlson (1)1–3
- P27:04Justin Sourdif Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jakob Chychrun (2), Boone Jenner (1)1–2
- P116:30Conor Geekie Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (2), Jake Guentzel (2)0–2
- P12:26Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (1), Jake Guentzel (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:26Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (1), Jake Guentzel (1)WSH 0 – 1 TB · TB 64% → 77% +13TB 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P116:30Conor Geekie Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (2), Jake Guentzel (2)WSH 0 – 2 TB · TB 77% → 88% +11TB 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P27:04Justin Sourdif Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jakob Chychrun (2), Boone Jenner (1)WSH 1 – 2 TB · WSH 10% → 22% +12WSH 10% → 22%+12 pts
- P317:55Jake Guentzel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (1), John Carlson (1)WSH 1 – 3 TB · TB 98% → >99% +2TB 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 64%
- ML WSH +170 / TB -205
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- TB: Elo 63.6%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -181
- WSH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +4 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +97 Elo | TB 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 66.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.72nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 51.3%9th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.2%11th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 21st of 3218–23 | Road vs home | 25–156th of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 9th of 321527 | Elo rating | 15403rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  WSH |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–37 | 38–51 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 0–10 |
| Favorite | 24–28 | 27–50 |
| Underdog | 21–9 | 11–1 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 43–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–5 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.