Buffalo Sabres at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Konsta HeleniusGoals1
- Owen PowerAssists2
- Owen PowerPoints2
Blue Jackets- Matthew KniesGoals2
- Charlie CoyleAssists3
- Matthew KniesPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:53Mathieu Olivier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (3)3–6
- P314:21Sean Monahan Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (1), Dmitri Voronkov (1)3–5
- P213:14Konsta Helenius Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (1), Owen Power (2)3–4
- P27:45Matthew Knies Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Emil Andrae (1), Kent Johnson (1)2–4
- P21:25Jack Quinn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (1), Noah Ostlund (2)2–3
- P118:44Adam Fantilli Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Zach Werenski (2), Matthew Knies (1)1–3
- P117:58Matthew Knies Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (2), Zach Werenski (1)1–2
- P112:51Cole Sillinger Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (1), Denton Mateychuk (1)1–1
- P17:21Mattias Samuelsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (1), Owen Power (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:21Mattias Samuelsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (1), Owen Power (1)BUF 1 – 0 CBJ · BUF 52% → 67% +15BUF 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P112:51Cole Sillinger Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (1), Denton Mateychuk (1)BUF 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 33% → 48% +16CBJ 33% → 48%+16 pts
- P117:58Matthew Knies Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (2), Zach Werenski (1)BUF 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 49% → 66% +17CBJ 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P27:45Matthew Knies Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Emil Andrae (1), Kent Johnson (1)BUF 2 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 68% → 83% +15CBJ 68% → 83%+15 pts
- P213:14Konsta Helenius Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (1), Owen Power (2)BUF 3 – 4 CBJ · BUF 14% → 30% +16BUF 14% → 30%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 52%
- ML BUF -118 / CBJ -102
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- BUF: Elo 49.7%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- BUF -107
- CBJ +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +6 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +2 Elo | CBJ 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 89.9%12th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 20–2121st of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 32 |
| 4th of 321541 | Elo rating | 150217th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  BUF |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 54–41 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 21–29 | 10–24 |
| Underdog | 33–12 | 32–16 |
| Overs–unders | 47–48 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 4–5 CBJ in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.