Utah Mammoth at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Nick SchmaltzGoals2
- Dylan GuentherAssists2
- Dylan GuentherPoints3
Blue Jackets- Kent JohnsonGoals1
- Matthew KniesAssists1
- Kent JohnsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:13Nick Schmaltz Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (3), Dylan Guenther (2)4–1
- P35:59Dylan Guenther Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (2), Mikhail Sergachev (2)3–1
- P21:30Kent Johnson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (2)2–1
- P116:31Nick Schmaltz Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (4), John Marino (1)2–0
- P111:55Mikhail Sergachev Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (1), Clayton Keller (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:55Mikhail Sergachev Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (1), Clayton Keller (3)UTA 1 – 0 CBJ · UTA 52% → 67% +16UTA 52% → 67%+16 pts
- P116:31Nick Schmaltz Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (4), John Marino (1)UTA 2 – 0 CBJ · UTA 68% → 81% +14UTA 68% → 81%+14 pts
- P21:30Kent Johnson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (2)UTA 2 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 17% → 31% +14CBJ 17% → 31%+14 pts
- P35:59Dylan Guenther Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (2), Mikhail Sergachev (2)UTA 3 – 1 CBJ · UTA 78% → 94% +16UTA 78% → 94%+16 pts
- P314:13Nick Schmaltz Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (3), Dylan Guenther (2)UTA 4 – 1 CBJ · UTA >99% → >99% +1UTA >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 52%
- ML UTA -118 / CBJ -102
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- UTA: Elo 44.0%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- UTA -107
- CBJ +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +5 | UTA: Sebastian Cossa (no track record yet) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +42 Elo | CBJ 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.9%12th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 10th of 3221–20 | Road vs home | 20–2121st of 32 |
| 25th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 32 |
| 14th of 321509 | Elo rating | 150617th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  UTA |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–47 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 20–36 | 10–24 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 32–16 |
| Overs–unders | 47–41 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 2–2 CBJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.
