Chicago Blackhawks at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks
Mammoth- Dylan GuentherGoals2
- Clayton KellerAssists2
- Dylan GuentherPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:50Daniil But Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Michael Carcone (1), Nate Schmidt (1)0–6
- P215:28Dylan Guenther Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Clayton Keller (2), Lawson Crouse (1)0–5
- P213:06Anders Lee Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Peeke (1), Dmitri Simashev (1)0–4
- P29:47Nick Schmaltz Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (1), Mikhail Sergachev (1)0–3
- P117:21Michael Carcone Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (1)0–2
- P116:41Dylan Guenther Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (1), Clayton Keller (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:41Dylan Guenther Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (1), Clayton Keller (1)CHI 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 64% → 79% +14UTA 64% → 79%+14 pts
- P117:21Michael Carcone Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (1)CHI 0 – 2 UTA · UTA 79% → 89% +10UTA 79% → 89%+10 pts
- P29:47Nick Schmaltz Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (1), Mikhail Sergachev (1)CHI 0 – 3 UTA · UTA 91% → 97% +6UTA 91% → 97%+6 pts
- P213:06Anders Lee Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Peeke (1), Dmitri Simashev (1)CHI 0 – 4 UTA · UTA 97% → >99% +2UTA 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P215:28Dylan Guenther Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Clayton Keller (2), Lawson Crouse (1)CHI 0 – 5 UTA · UTA >99% → >99% +0UTA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 67%
- ML CHI +190 / UTA -230
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- UTA: Elo 67.8%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- UTA -202
- CHI +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.8 – 3.7 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | −3 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +129 Elo | UTA 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 67.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.38th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.1% | Shot share | 51.4%8th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.3%21st of 32 |
| 27th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 29th of 3215–26 | Road vs home | 22–1914th of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321423 | Elo rating | 150516th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  CHI |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 50–32 | 41–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 20–36 |
| Underdog | 50–29 | 21–11 |
| Overs–unders | 36–46 | 47–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 5–3 UTA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
