Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Jordan GreenwayGoals1
- Wyatt KaiserAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints1
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals1
- Jack EichelAssists2
- Jack EichelPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:27Mark Stone Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (2), Ivan Barbashev (2)2–5
- P34:43Noah Hanifin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (1), Marc Gatcomb (1)2–4
- P34:04Patrick Kane Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P215:12Jack Eichel Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (1), Brayden McNabb (2)1–3
- P212:23Jordan Greenway Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (1), Wyatt Kaiser (1)1–2
- P115:22Trevor Connelly Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brayden McNabb (1), Shea Theodore (2)0–2
- P110:30Victor Olofsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (1), Shea Theodore (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:30Victor Olofsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (1), Shea Theodore (1)CHI 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 68% → 81% +13VGK 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P212:23Jordan Greenway Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (1), Wyatt Kaiser (1)CHI 1 – 2 VGK · CHI 8% → 19% +11CHI 8% → 19%+11 pts
- P215:12Jack Eichel Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (1), Brayden McNabb (2)CHI 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 82% → 93% +11VGK 82% → 93%+11 pts
- P34:04Patrick Kane Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 2 – 3 VGK · CHI 5% → 16% +12CHI 5% → 16%+12 pts
- P34:43Noah Hanifin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (1), Marc Gatcomb (1)CHI 2 – 4 VGK · VGK 84% → 96% +12VGK 84% → 96%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 70%
- ML CHI +220 / VGK -270
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- VGK: Elo 68.4%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- VGK -234
- CHI +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.7 – 3.8 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −2 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +134 Elo | VGK 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 67.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.1% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.4%28th of 32 |
| 27th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3215–26 | Road vs home | 20–2121st of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149532nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321426 | Elo rating | 15307th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  CHI |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 50–32 | 46–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 23–53 |
| Underdog | 50–29 | 23–5 |
| Overs–unders | 36–46 | 52–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–6 VGK in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.