Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jack QuinnGoals2
- Jack QuinnAssists2
- Jack QuinnPoints4
Maple Leafs- Kirill MarchenkoGoals3
- John TavaresAssists2
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:14Owen Power Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (4), Noah Ostlund (4)5–4
- P312:16Mattias Samuelsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (4)4–4
- P310:05Dennis Gilbert Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (3), Zach Benson (5)3–4
- P216:51Kirill Marchenko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (1), Easton Cowan (3)2–4
- P211:13Kirill Marchenko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (5)2–3
- P22:41Jack Quinn Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (3), Mattias Samuelsson (4)2–2
- P113:10Kirill Marchenko Goal (2) Between Legs, assists: John Tavares (4), Darren Raddysh (4)1–2
- P13:35Jack Quinn Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (4), Zach Metsa (2)1–1
- P12:24Auston Matthews Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:10Kirill Marchenko Goal (2) Between Legs, assists: John Tavares (4), Darren Raddysh (4)BUF 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 51% → 67% +16TOR 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P22:41Jack Quinn Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (3), Mattias Samuelsson (4)BUF 2 – 2 TOR · BUF 31% → 49% +18BUF 31% → 49%+18 pts
- P211:13Kirill Marchenko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (5)BUF 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 51% → 71% +20TOR 51% → 71%+20 pts
- P312:16Mattias Samuelsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (4)BUF 4 – 4 TOR · BUF 15% → 50% +34BUF 15% → 50%+34 pts
- OT3:14Owen Power Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (4), Noah Ostlund (4)BUF 5 – 4 TOR · BUF 50% → 98% +48BUF 50% → 98%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML BUF -105 / TOR -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 47.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- BUF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.2 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | 0 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +18 Elo | BUF 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.119th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.9% | Shot share | 48.0%22nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3285.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%16th of 32 |
| 26th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 2–213th of 32 |
| 15th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15185th of 32 |
| 7th of 321530 | Elo rating | 147425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 5–6 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.