Minnesota Wild at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Maxim ShabanovGoals1
- Michael McCarronAssists1
- Danila YurovPoints1
Sabres- Owen PowerGoals1
- Owen PowerAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:22Owen Power Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jiri Kulich (1), Tage Thompson (2)2–3
- P39:38Tage Thompson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (2)2–2
- P33:55Noah Ostlund Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Owen Power (4), Rasmus Dahlin (1)2–1
- P215:38Maxim Shabanov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (3), Michael McCarron (3)2–0
- P213:53Danila Yurov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (2), Blake Coleman (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:53Danila Yurov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (2), Blake Coleman (1)MIN 1 – 0 BUF · MIN 50% → 71% +21MIN 50% → 71%+21 pts
- P215:38Maxim Shabanov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (3), Michael McCarron (3)MIN 2 – 0 BUF · MIN 72% → 88% +16MIN 72% → 88%+16 pts
- P33:55Noah Ostlund Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Owen Power (4), Rasmus Dahlin (1)MIN 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 8% → 24% +16BUF 8% → 24%+16 pts
- P39:38Tage Thompson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (2)MIN 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 19% → 50% +31BUF 19% → 50%+31 pts
- OT4:22Owen Power Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jiri Kulich (1), Tage Thompson (2)MIN 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 50% → >99% +50BUF 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 50%
- ML MIN -112 / BUF -108
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 45.0%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -102
- BUF +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −4 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +35 Elo | BUF 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.7%3rd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 7th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 32 |
| 28th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 5th of 321534 | Elo rating | 15384th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  MIN |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–47 | 54–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–36 | 21–29 |
| Underdog | 31–11 | 33–12 |
| Overs–unders | 54–39 | 47–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–3 BUF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.