Chicago Blackhawks at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Alex VlasicAssists2
- Alex VlasicPoints2
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:20Jiri Kulich Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Power (3), Tage Thompson (1)3–4
- P36:10Rasmus Dahlin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (1), Mattias Samuelsson (1)3–3
- P218:18Oliver Moore Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Frondell (2), Alex Vlasic (2)3–2
- P25:41Tage Thompson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Louis Crevier (1), Josh Norris (1)2–2
- P116:24Jack Quinn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Metsa (1)2–1
- P111:24Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Frondell (1), Teuvo Teravainen (1)2–0
- P17:59Ryan Donato Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (1), Nick Lardis (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:24Jack Quinn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Metsa (1)CHI 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 31% → 48% +16BUF 31% → 48%+16 pts
- P25:41Tage Thompson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Louis Crevier (1), Josh Norris (1)CHI 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 44% → 63% +19BUF 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P218:18Oliver Moore Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Frondell (2), Alex Vlasic (2)CHI 3 – 2 BUF · CHI 40% → 63% +24CHI 40% → 63%+24 pts
- P36:10Rasmus Dahlin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (1), Mattias Samuelsson (1)CHI 3 – 3 BUF · BUF 29% → 58% +29BUF 29% → 58%+29 pts
- P313:20Jiri Kulich Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Power (3), Tage Thompson (1)CHI 3 – 4 BUF · BUF 56% → 89% +33BUF 56% → 89%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 67%
- ML CHI +190 / BUF -230
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- BUF: Elo 69.9%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- BUF -202
- CHI +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.3 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −3 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +146 Elo | BUF 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 69.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 69.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.1% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.7%3rd of 32 |
| 27th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 29th of 3215–26 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321420 | Elo rating | 15374th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  CHI |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 50–32 | 54–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 21–29 |
| Underdog | 50–29 | 33–12 |
| Overs–unders | 36–46 | 47–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–6 BUF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.