Boston Bruins at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Tanner JeannotGoals1
- Connor CliftonAssists1
- Tanner JeannotPoints1
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Quinn HughesAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:59Kirill Kaprizov Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none1–4
- P33:24Jared Spurgeon Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (2), Quinn Hughes (2)1–3
- P212:28Quinn Hughes Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (2), Ryan Hartman (1)1–2
- P26:11Kirill Kaprizov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Shabanov (1), Joel Eriksson Ek (1)1–1
- P11:53Tanner Jeannot Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (2), Connor Clifton (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:53Tanner Jeannot Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (2), Connor Clifton (1)BOS 1 – 0 MIN · BOS 34% → 49% +14BOS 34% → 49%+14 pts
- P26:11Kirill Kaprizov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Shabanov (1), Joel Eriksson Ek (1)BOS 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 43% → 62% +19MIN 43% → 62%+19 pts
- P212:28Quinn Hughes Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (2), Ryan Hartman (1)BOS 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 61% → 79% +18MIN 61% → 79%+18 pts
- P33:24Jared Spurgeon Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (2), Quinn Hughes (2)BOS 1 – 3 MIN · MIN 82% → 95% +13MIN 82% → 95%+13 pts
- P318:59Kirill Kaprizov Goal (3) Backhand, assists: noneBOS 1 – 4 MIN · MIN >99% → 100% +0MIN >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 66%
- ML BOS +180 / MIN -218
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 62.2%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -192
- BOS +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.8 – 3.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −1 | BOS: Michael DiPietro (no track record yet) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +86 Elo | MIN 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 49.8%18th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.8%2nd of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 26th of 3216–24 | Road vs home | 23–1811th of 32 |
| 6th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149728th of 32 |
| 14th of 321510 | Elo rating | 15315th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  BOS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 57–31 | 46–47 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–17 | 15–36 |
| Underdog | 45–14 | 31–11 |
| Overs–unders | 45–43 | 54–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–4 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.