Minnesota Wild at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Nick FolignoGoals1
- Jared SpurgeonAssists1
- Nick FolignoPoints1
Predators- Roman JosiGoals1
- Steven StamkosAssists1
- Roman JosiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P34:42Kirill Kaprizov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (1), Jared Spurgeon (1)3–1
- P29:23Roman Josi Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (1), Steven Stamkos (1)2–1
- P113:48Blake Coleman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (1), Danila Yurov (1)2–0
- P19:35Nick Foligno Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (1), Olli Maatta (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:35Nick Foligno Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (1), Olli Maatta (1)MIN 1 – 0 NSH · MIN 57% → 71% +15MIN 57% → 71%+15 pts
- P113:48Blake Coleman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (1), Danila Yurov (1)MIN 2 – 0 NSH · MIN 72% → 84% +12MIN 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P29:23Roman Josi Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (1), Steven Stamkos (1)MIN 2 – 1 NSH · NSH 12% → 26% +14NSH 12% → 26%+14 pts
- P34:42Kirill Kaprizov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (1), Jared Spurgeon (1)MIN 3 – 1 NSH · MIN 79% → 94% +15MIN 79% → 94%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML MIN -148 / NSH +124
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.5%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -134
- NSH +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.5 – 3.0 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −2 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +10 Elo | MIN 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 48.5%23rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.7%14th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 20–2020th of 32 |
| 28th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 8th of 321527 | Elo rating | 148023rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  MIN |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–47 | 46–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 15–36 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 31–11 | 39–20 |
| Overs–unders | 54–39 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–5 NSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.