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Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+

Away

Senators

1-0-0

3–2

at

Home

Maple Leafs

1-2-0

OTT 49%TOR 51%

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Scotiabank Arena · ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.

TOR favored OTT favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3TOR50%OTT

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Senators
Maple Leafs

Scoring summary

  • P39:46Stephen Halliday Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (1), Claude Giroux (2)3–2
  • P212:40Michael Amadio Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (1), Thomas Chabot (1)2–2
  • P27:06Kirill Marchenko Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Darren Raddysh (1), John Tavares (2)1–2
  • P20:33Auston Matthews Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (3), William Nylander (1)1–1
  • P118:51Thomas Chabot Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (1), Shane Pinto (1)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P118:51Thomas Chabot Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (1), Shane Pinto (1)OTT 1 – 0 TOR · OTT 49% → 66% +17
  2. P20:33Auston Matthews Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (3), William Nylander (1)OTT 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 33% → 51% +17
  3. P27:06Kirill Marchenko Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Darren Raddysh (1), John Tavares (2)OTT 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 51% → 70% +19
  4. P212:40Michael Amadio Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (1), Thomas Chabot (1)OTT 2 – 2 TOR · OTT 29% → 49% +20
  5. P39:46Stephen Halliday Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (1), Claude Giroux (2)OTT 3 – 2 TOR · OTT 50% → 81% +31

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Maple Leafs 51%

Toss-upMiss
OTT 49%TOR 51%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
TOR 51%
ML OTT -105 / TOR -115
Pre-line forecast
TOR 47%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TOR 47%
Ratings vs. market
−3.6 pts
TOR: Elo 47.5%, market 51.1%
Fair odds
TOR -104
OTT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
OTT 3.2 – 3.3 TOR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorOTTTORWhy
Team rating15211471Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+5+2OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsOTT +18 EloOTT 52.5%
Market-implied ratingsOTT 53.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastOTT 53.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTOR 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs compared, with each team's league rank
OTTStatTOR
9th of 323.4Goals scored3.116th of 32
11th of 323.0Goals allowed3.631st of 32
6th of 32+0.4Margin−0.629th of 32
4th of 3254.2%Shot share44.8%32nd of 32
31st of 3288.2%Save percentage89.7%15th of 32
8th of 326–4Last 102–827th of 32
10th of 3221–20Road vs home18–2328th of 32
14th of 321501Opponent Elo15041st of 32
10th of 321521Elo rating147127th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

SenatorsMaple Leafs
145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

Last season (2025-26)OTTTOR
Puck line41–4534–48
Last 107–34–6
Favorite23–377–26
Underdog18–827–22
Overs–unders44–4247–35
Overs–unders, last 104–67–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

OTT 11–6 TOR in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.