New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Emil HeinemanGoals1
- Bo HorvatAssists1
- Emil HeinemanPoints1
Maple Leafs- Easton CowanGoals1
- Easton CowanAssists1
- Easton CowanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:09Emil Heineman Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (1)1–2
- P111:55Easton Cowan Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John (Jack) Roslovic (1), Morgan Rielly (2)0–2
- P17:14Colton Sissons Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nicholas Paul (1), Easton Cowan (2)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:14Colton Sissons Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nicholas Paul (1), Easton Cowan (2)NYI 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 56% → 71% +15TOR 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P111:55Easton Cowan Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John (Jack) Roslovic (1), Morgan Rielly (2)NYI 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 71% → 83% +12TOR 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P314:09Emil Heineman Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (1)NYI 1 – 2 TOR · NYI <1% → 11% +10NYI <1% → 11%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 56%
- ML NYI +120 / TOR -142
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 50.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -129
- NYI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.6 – 2.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +7 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +1 Elo | TOR 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 44.8%32nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.7%15th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 10th of 3221–20 | Road vs home | 18–2328th of 32 |
| 8th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15041st of 32 |
| 22nd of 321482 | Elo rating | 146927th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  NYI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–40 | 34–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–27 | 7–26 |
| Underdog | 36–13 | 27–22 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 47–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 7–2 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.