Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Mikko RantanenAssists3
- Mikko RantanenPoints4
SabresScoring summary
- P215:34Roope Hintz Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (4), Mikko Rantanen (4)4–0
- P213:57Mikko Rantanen Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Nils Lundkvist (1), Wyatt Johnston (3)3–0
- P29:36Sam Steel Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (1), Mikko Rantanen (3)2–0
- P19:03Jason Robertson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (2), Wyatt Johnston (2)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:03Jason Robertson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (2), Wyatt Johnston (2)DAL 1 – 0 BUF · DAL 52% → 68% +15DAL 52% → 68%+15 pts
- P29:36Sam Steel Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (1), Mikko Rantanen (3)DAL 2 – 0 BUF · DAL 71% → 86% +15DAL 71% → 86%+15 pts
- P213:57Mikko Rantanen Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Nils Lundkvist (1), Wyatt Johnston (3)DAL 3 – 0 BUF · DAL 88% → 96% +8DAL 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P215:34Roope Hintz Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (4), Mikko Rantanen (4)DAL 4 – 0 BUF · DAL 96% → >99% +3DAL 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 53%
- ML DAL -122 / BUF +102
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 43.9%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- DAL -111
- BUF +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.3 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −2 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +42 Elo | BUF 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.0 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.0 | Goals allowed | 3.723rd of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 9th of 3256.3% | Shot share | 58.6%3rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3293.4% | Save percentage | 82.5%30th of 32 |
| 18th of 290–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 29 |
| 29th of 321476 | Opponent Elo | 148526th of 32 |
| 7th of 321531 | Elo rating | 15404th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  DAL |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–53 | 54–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–49 | 21–29 |
| Underdog | 16–4 | 33–12 |
| Overs–unders | 46–42 | 47–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–2 BUF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.