San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Roope HintzAssists2
- Jamie BennPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:22Mikko Rantanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (1)0–5
- P216:30Jason Robertson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–4
- P26:19Jamie Benn Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (1), Roope Hintz (2)0–3
- P23:17Joel Kiviranta Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Oskar Bäck (1), Radek Faksa (1)0–2
- P118:51Miro Heiskanen Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Roope Hintz (1), Jamie Benn (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:51Miro Heiskanen Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Roope Hintz (1), Jamie Benn (1)SJ 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 63% → 78% +15DAL 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P23:17Joel Kiviranta Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Oskar Bäck (1), Radek Faksa (1)SJ 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 78% → 89% +11DAL 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P26:19Jamie Benn Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (1), Roope Hintz (2)SJ 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 90% → 96% +6DAL 90% → 96%+6 pts
- P216:30Jason Robertson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 0 – 4 DAL · DAL 98% → >99% +2DAL 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P315:22Mikko Rantanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (1)SJ 0 – 5 DAL · DAL >99% → >99% +0DAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 66%
- ML SJ +180 / DAL -218
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- DAL: Elo 66.4%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -192
- SJ +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.7 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −3 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +118 Elo | DAL 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 67.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.82nd of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 49.2%20th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 90.2%9th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3218–23 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149923rd of 32 |
| 29th of 321454 | Elo rating | 15289th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  SJ |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 49–33 | 35–53 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 19–49 |
| Underdog | 46–24 | 16–4 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 46–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–8 DAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.