Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Brandt ClarkeAssists2
- Adrian KempePoints2
Sharks- Igor ChernyshovGoals2
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Igor ChernyshovPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:18Igor Chernyshov Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (5)4–5
- P315:00Artemi Panarin Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (1)4–4
- P310:21Erik Haula Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Erik Gustafsson (1), Brandt Clarke (2)3–4
- P34:08Igor Chernyshov Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Tyler Toffoli (1), Jacob Trouba (1)2–4
- P219:58Quinton Byfield Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (1), Adrian Kempe (1)2–3
- P212:32Nolan Allan Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Misa (1), Igor Chernyshov (1)1–3
- P29:52Kiefer Sherwood Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–2
- P21:48Tyler Toffoli Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Ivar Stenberg (1), Macklin Celebrini (4)1–1
- P115:50Adrian Kempe Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (1), Brandt Clarke (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:50Adrian Kempe Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (1), Brandt Clarke (1)LA 1 – 0 SJ · LA 50% → 66% +16LA 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P21:48Tyler Toffoli Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Ivar Stenberg (1), Macklin Celebrini (4)LA 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 32% → 50% +18SJ 32% → 50%+18 pts
- P29:52Kiefer Sherwood Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneLA 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 50% → 70% +20SJ 50% → 70%+20 pts
- P315:00Artemi Panarin Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (1)LA 4 – 4 SJ · LA 10% → 50% +40LA 10% → 50%+40 pts
- OT3:18Igor Chernyshov Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (5)LA 4 – 5 SJ · SJ 50% → 98% +48SJ 50% → 98%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sharks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 50%
- ML LA -110 / SJ -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- SJ: Elo 49.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SJ -100
- LA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.3 – 3.3 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −14 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +4 Elo | LA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 46.5%29th of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.7%25th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 14th of 3220–21 | Road vs home | 21–2017th of 32 |
| 26th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 32 |
| 26th of 321476 | Elo rating | 145230th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  LA |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–54 | 49–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–41 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 46–24 |
| Overs–unders | 40–46 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 6–5 SJ in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.