Florida Panthers at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Eetu LuostarinenGoals2
- Dmitry KulikovAssists1
- Eetu LuostarinenPoints2
Sharks- Will SmithGoals2
- Macklin CelebriniAssists3
- Will SmithPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:14Luca Cagnoni Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (1), Macklin Celebrini (3)3–4
- P35:18Matthew Tkachuk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (1)3–3
- P35:01Eetu Luostarinen Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (1), Anton Lundell (1)2–3
- P217:10Eetu Luostarinen Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Lars Eller (1), Aaron Ekblad (1)1–3
- P210:37Will Smith Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (2), Luca Cagnoni (1)0–3
- P25:52Will Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (1)0–2
- P114:20Mason Marchment Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:20Mason Marchment Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 44% → 60% +17SJ 44% → 60%+17 pts
- P25:52Will Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (1)FLA 0 – 2 SJ · SJ 64% → 80% +16SJ 64% → 80%+16 pts
- P35:01Eetu Luostarinen Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (1), Anton Lundell (1)FLA 2 – 3 SJ · FLA 9% → 26% +18FLA 9% → 26%+18 pts
- P35:18Matthew Tkachuk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (1)FLA 3 – 3 SJ · FLA 26% → 54% +28FLA 26% → 54%+28 pts
- OT3:14Luca Cagnoni Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (1), Macklin Celebrini (3)FLA 3 – 4 SJ · SJ 49% → 98% +49SJ 49% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 57%
- ML FLA -148 / SJ +124
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- FLA: Elo 57.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -134
- SJ +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.5 – 3.0 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −16 | FLA: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.41 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +49 Elo | FLA 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 51.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 46.5%29th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 88.7%25th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 24th of 3217–24 | Road vs home | 21–2017th of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 32 |
| 11th of 321511 | Elo rating | 144930th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  FLA |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–52 | 49–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–40 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 46–24 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 4–2 SJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.