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Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast

FinalTNT, truTV

Away

Kings

0-1-0

4–8

at

Home

Avalanche

1-0-0

LA 36%COL 64%

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Ball Arena · TNT, truTV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.

COL favored LA favored12 scoring plays
P1P2P3COL50%LA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Avalanche

Scoring summary

  • P315:06Artturi Lehkonen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (2), Devon Toews (2)4–8
  • P314:03Gabriel Landeskog Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (2)4–7
  • P311:51Artemi Panarin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (1), Alex Laferriere (2)4–6
  • P218:34Artturi Lehkonen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (1), Devon Toews (1)3–6
  • P217:50Trevor Moore Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (1)3–5
  • P216:01Nicolas Roy Goal (1) Poke, assists: Jaden Schwartz (2), Parker Kelly (1)2–5
  • P28:33Nathan MacKinnon Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (1), Brent Burns (1)2–4
  • P21:28Joel Armia Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (1), Cody Ceci (1)2–3
  • P20:23Nathan MacKinnon Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (2), Cale Makar (1)1–3
  • P117:58Parker Kelly Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Manson (1)1–2
  • P115:14Brian Dumoulin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (1), Alex Turcotte (1)1–1
  • P16:33Brock Nelson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (1), Nazem Kadri (1)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P16:33Brock Nelson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (1), Nazem Kadri (1)LA 0 – 1 COL · COL 64% → 77% +13
  2. P115:14Brian Dumoulin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (1), Alex Turcotte (1)LA 1 – 1 COL · LA 23% → 37% +15
  3. P117:58Parker Kelly Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Manson (1)LA 1 – 2 COL · COL 62% → 77% +15
  4. P21:28Joel Armia Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (1), Cody Ceci (1)LA 2 – 3 COL · LA 11% → 23% +11
  5. P28:33Nathan MacKinnon Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (1), Brent Burns (1)LA 2 – 4 COL · COL 78% → 90% +12

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Avalanche 64%

SolidHit
LA 36%COL 64%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

Market
COL 64%
ML LA +170 / COL -205
Pre-line forecast
COL 64%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
COL 66%
Ratings vs. market
+1.7 pts
COL: Elo 66.2%, market 64.5%
Fair odds
COL -181
LA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
LA 2.8 – 3.7 COL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLACOLWhy
Team rating14801566Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−5−9LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCOL +117 EloCOL 66.2%
Market-implied ratingsCOL 63.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCOL 63.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCOL 64.5%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Los Angeles Kings and Colorado Avalanche compared, with each team's league rank
LAStatCOL
29th of 322.7Goals scored3.71st of 32
12th of 323.0Goals allowed2.51st of 32
21st of 32−0.3Margin+1.21st of 32
12th of 3250.8%Shot share56.3%2nd of 32
13th of 3289.9%Save percentage91.4%1st of 32
8th of 326–4Last 107–32nd of 32
14th of 3220–21Road vs home26–153rd of 32
27th of 321497Opponent Elo149630th of 32
23rd of 321480Elo rating15662nd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

KingsAvalanche
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

Last season (2025-26)LACOL
Puck line32–5448–47
Last 104–65–5
Favorite11–4146–47
Underdog21–132–0
Overs–unders40–4642–53
Overs–unders, last 104–66–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LA 2–11 COL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 13.