Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Miro HeiskanenGoals1
- Mikko RantanenAssists1
- Miro HeiskanenPoints1
Predators- Nils HoglanderGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Scoring summary
- P115:49Nils Hoglander Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Jack Ahcan (1), Alexander Kerfoot (1)1–2
- P14:46Steven Stamkos Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (1), Roman Josi (1)1–1
- P10:47Miro Heiskanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (1), Wyatt Johnston (1)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:47Miro Heiskanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (1), Wyatt Johnston (1)DAL 1 – 0 NSH · DAL 56% → 70% +14DAL 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P14:46Steven Stamkos Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (1), Roman Josi (1)DAL 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 30% → 44% +14NSH 30% → 44%+14 pts
- P115:49Nils Hoglander Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Jack Ahcan (1), Alexander Kerfoot (1)DAL 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 45% → 61% +17NSH 45% → 61%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 56%
- ML DAL -142 / NSH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 48.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -129
- NSH +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.4 – 3.1 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −2 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +8 Elo | NSH 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 48.5%23rd of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.7%14th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 20–2020th of 32 |
| 24th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 6th of 321530 | Elo rating | 147626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  DAL |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–53 | 46–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–49 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 16–4 | 39–20 |
| Overs–unders | 46–42 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 7–4 NSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.