St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pius SuterGoals1
- Pius SuterAssists1
- Pius SuterPoints2
StarsScoring summary
- P317:52Pius Suter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (1), Joel Hofer (1)4–0
- P317:37Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P213:05Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (1), Pius Suter (1)2–0
- P11:34Mason McTavish Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (1), Jimmy Snuggerud (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:34Mason McTavish Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (1), Jimmy Snuggerud (1)STL 1 – 0 DAL · STL 38% → 52% +15STL 38% → 52%+15 pts
- P213:05Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (1), Pius Suter (1)STL 2 – 0 DAL · STL 63% → 81% +18STL 63% → 81%+18 pts
- P317:37Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSTL 3 – 0 DAL · STL >99% → >99% +0STL >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P317:52Pius Suter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (1), Joel Hofer (1)STL 4 – 0 DAL · STL >99% → >99% +0STL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 62%
- ML STL +154 / DAL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 58.6%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -165
- STL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.4 – 3.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −3 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +60 Elo | DAL 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.82nd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 49.2%20th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.2%9th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3217–24 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 32 |
| 27th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 32 |
| 17th of 321503 | Elo rating | 15365th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  STL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–35 | 35–53 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–23 | 19–49 |
| Underdog | 39–12 | 16–4 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 46–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–8 DAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.