Utah Mammoth at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Anders LeeGoals1
- Barrett HaytonAssists2
- Anders LeePoints2
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Rasmus DahlinAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P31:45John Marino Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (4), Anders Lee (3)4–1
- P217:24Anders Lee Goal (2) Backhand, assists: John Marino (2), Kailer Yamamoto (1)3–1
- P215:23Nick Schmaltz Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (5), Clayton Keller (7)2–1
- P110:12Kailer Yamamoto Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (3), Mikhail Sergachev (6)1–1
- P18:00Tage Thompson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:00Tage Thompson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (2)UTA 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 50% → 65% +15BUF 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P110:12Kailer Yamamoto Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (3), Mikhail Sergachev (6)UTA 1 – 1 BUF · UTA 35% → 50% +16UTA 35% → 50%+16 pts
- P215:23Nick Schmaltz Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (5), Clayton Keller (7)UTA 2 – 1 BUF · UTA 50% → 72% +22UTA 50% → 72%+22 pts
- P217:24Anders Lee Goal (2) Backhand, assists: John Marino (2), Kailer Yamamoto (1)UTA 3 – 1 BUF · UTA 73% → 88% +16UTA 73% → 88%+16 pts
- P31:45John Marino Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (4), Anders Lee (3)UTA 4 – 1 BUF · UTA 91% → 98% +7UTA 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 50%
- ML UTA -112 / BUF -108
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- UTA: Elo 41.3%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- UTA -102
- BUF +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.3 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −1 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +61 Elo | BUF 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.524th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.826th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −1.327th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3259.2% | Shot share | 58.7%3rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 81.3%31st of 32 |
| 8th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 32 |
| 27th of 321483 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 32 |
| 13th of 321509 | Elo rating | 15347th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  UTA |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–47 | 54–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–36 | 21–29 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 33–12 |
| Overs–unders | 47–41 | 47–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 4–0 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.
