Utah Mammoth at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Andrew PeekeGoals1
- Anders LeeAssists1
- Nick SchmaltzPoints1
Rangers- Vladislav GavrikovGoals1
- Vladislav GavrikovAssists1
- Vladislav GavrikovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:45Eeli Tolvanen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (2), Igor Shesterkin (1)2–4
- P314:57Andrew Peeke Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (1)2–3
- P312:47J.T. Miller Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (1), Tye Kartye (2)1–3
- P33:15Gabe Perreault Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (1), Mika Zibanejad (2)1–2
- P214:29Nick Schmaltz Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Clayton Keller (5)1–1
- P117:18Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:18Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (4)UTA 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 52% → 68% +17NYR 52% → 68%+17 pts
- P214:29Nick Schmaltz Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Clayton Keller (5)UTA 1 – 1 NYR · UTA 28% → 49% +21UTA 28% → 49%+21 pts
- P33:15Gabe Perreault Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (1), Mika Zibanejad (2)UTA 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 51% → 76% +25NYR 51% → 76%+25 pts
- P312:47J.T. Miller Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (1), Tye Kartye (2)UTA 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 86% → 98% +13NYR 86% → 98%+13 pts
- P314:57Andrew Peeke Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (1)UTA 2 – 3 NYR · UTA <1% → 10% +10UTA <1% → 10%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 52%
- ML UTA +100 / NYR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- NYR: Elo 56.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -109
- UTA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.7 – 2.8 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | UTA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +5 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +46 Elo | NYR 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 46.6%27th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.4%4th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 10th of 3221–20 | Road vs home | 14–2730th of 32 |
| 25th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15034th of 32 |
| 12th of 321514 | Elo rating | 149119th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  UTA |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–47 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–36 | 9–23 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 47–41 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 3–1 NYR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.
