Utah Mammoth at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Nick SchmaltzGoals1
- Mikhail SergachevAssists3
- Nick SchmaltzPoints3
Devils- Luke EvangelistaGoals2
- Timo MeierAssists1
- Luke EvangelistaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:52Vincent Trocheck Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (2), Clayton Keller (6)5–3
- P39:49Jesper Boqvist Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Dougie Hamilton (1), Declan Chisholm (1)4–3
- P219:03Lawson Crouse Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Barrett Hayton (1), Nick Schmaltz (1)4–2
- P212:05Nick Schmaltz Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (3), Mikhail Sergachev (5)3–2
- P26:31Luke Evangelista Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Timo Meier (1)2–2
- P21:42MacKenzie Weegar Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Anders Lee (2), Mikhail Sergachev (4)2–1
- P112:23Luke Evangelista Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (1), Jesper Bratt (2)1–1
- P11:57Clayton Keller Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (3), Logan Cooley (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:23Luke Evangelista Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (1), Jesper Bratt (2)UTA 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 37% → 53% +16NJ 37% → 53%+16 pts
- P21:42MacKenzie Weegar Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Anders Lee (2), Mikhail Sergachev (4)UTA 2 – 1 NJ · UTA 47% → 65% +18UTA 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P26:31Luke Evangelista Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Timo Meier (1)UTA 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 33% → 52% +19NJ 33% → 52%+19 pts
- P212:05Nick Schmaltz Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (3), Mikhail Sergachev (5)UTA 3 – 2 NJ · UTA 48% → 68% +21UTA 48% → 68%+21 pts
- P219:03Lawson Crouse Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Barrett Hayton (1), Nick Schmaltz (1)UTA 4 – 2 NJ · UTA 72% → 88% +17UTA 72% → 88%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 53%
- ML UTA +105 / NJ -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NJ: Elo 51.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -114
- UTA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.2 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −1 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +10 Elo | NJ 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 52.0%7th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.3%19th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 10th of 3221–20 | Road vs home | 21–2017th of 32 |
| 25th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15042nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321511 | Elo rating | 148620th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  UTA |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–47 | 32–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–36 | 11–37 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders | 47–41 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 0–4 NJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.