New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils
Islanders- Brayden SchennGoals1
- Logan StanleyAssists2
- Brayden SchennPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:41Casey Cizikas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (1), Logan Stanley (2)0–6
- P312:14Ondrej Palat Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (1), Logan Stanley (1)0–5
- P311:32Victor Eklund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (1), Brayden Schenn (1)0–4
- P212:08Bo Horvat Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (2)0–3
- P25:00Brayden Schenn Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Eklund (1), Matthew Schaefer (1)0–2
- P23:32Simon Holmstrom Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1), Adam Pelech (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:32Simon Holmstrom Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1), Adam Pelech (1)NJ 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 46% → 64% +18NYI 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P25:00Brayden Schenn Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Eklund (1), Matthew Schaefer (1)NJ 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 65% → 80% +16NYI 65% → 80%+16 pts
- P212:08Bo Horvat Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (2)NJ 0 – 3 NYI · NYI 84% → 94% +10NYI 84% → 94%+10 pts
- P311:32Victor Eklund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (1), Brayden Schenn (1)NJ 0 – 4 NYI · NYI >99% → >99% +0NYI >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P312:14Ondrej Palat Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (1), Logan Stanley (1)NJ 0 – 5 NYI · NYI >99% → >99% +0NYI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 55%
- ML NJ -135 / NYI +114
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- NJ: Elo 47.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -123
- NYI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 2.6 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −1 | NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +19 Elo | NYI 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 51.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 50.4%15th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.2%10th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 10th of 3221–20 | Road vs home | 22–1914th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 32 |
| 18th of 321492 | Elo rating | 147924th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  NJ |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–50 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–37 | 6–27 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 36–13 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–7 NYI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 11.