Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis SanheimGoals1
- Travis SanheimAssists1
- Travis SanheimPoints2
Devils- Jack HughesGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists1
- Dougie HamiltonPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:23Jack Hughes Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (1)2–3
- P39:44Luke Hughes Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (1)2–2
- P35:33Travis Sanheim Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (1)2–1
- P217:58Dougie Hamilton Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P111:12Rasmus Ristolainen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (1), Travis Konecny (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:12Rasmus Ristolainen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (1), Travis Konecny (1)PHI 1 – 0 NJ · PHI 39% → 55% +16PHI 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P217:58Dougie Hamilton Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: nonePHI 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 34% → 57% +23NJ 34% → 57%+23 pts
- P35:33Travis Sanheim Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (1)PHI 2 – 1 NJ · PHI 44% → 73% +28PHI 44% → 73%+28 pts
- P39:44Luke Hughes Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (1)PHI 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 22% → 55% +33NJ 22% → 55%+33 pts
- OT3:23Jack Hughes Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (1)PHI 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 52% → 99% +47NJ 52% → 99%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 62%
- ML PHI +150 / NJ -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- NJ: Elo 62.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NJ -161
- PHI +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.4 – 3.1 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −24 | −1 | PHI: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.61 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +87 Elo | NJ 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 64.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 52.0%7th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.3%19th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 7th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 21–2017th of 32 |
| 5th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15033rd of 32 |
| 18th of 321491 | Elo rating | 149020th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  PHI |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 58–34 | 32–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 11–37 |
| Underdog | 47–18 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders | 44–48 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 7–4 NJ in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.