Utah Mammoth at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Jack McBainGoals1
- Barrett HaytonAssists1
- Jack McBainPoints1
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals2
- David PastrnakAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints4
Scoring summary
- P39:48Jack McBain Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Simashev (2), Barrett Hayton (2)1–6
- P214:08Matthew Poitras Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (4)0–6
- P27:57Morgan Geekie Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (3), Pavel Zacha (1)0–5
- P24:40David Pastrnak Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (3), Hampus Lindholm (2)0–4
- P115:51Mason Lohrei Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (1), Mark Kastelic (3)0–3
- P114:22David Pastrnak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederic Brunet (1), Morgan Geekie (2)0–2
- P110:06Casey Mittelstadt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: James Hagens (1), Elias Lindholm (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:06Casey Mittelstadt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: James Hagens (1), Elias Lindholm (2)UTA 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 44% → 60% +16BOS 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P114:22David Pastrnak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederic Brunet (1), Morgan Geekie (2)UTA 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 61% → 76% +15BOS 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P115:51Mason Lohrei Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (1), Mark Kastelic (3)UTA 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 76% → 87% +11BOS 76% → 87%+11 pts
- P24:40David Pastrnak Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (3), Hampus Lindholm (2)UTA 0 – 4 BOS · BOS 90% → 96% +6BOS 90% → 96%+6 pts
- P27:57Morgan Geekie Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (3), Pavel Zacha (1)UTA 0 – 5 BOS · BOS 97% → >99% +2BOS 97% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 56%
- ML UTA -142 / BOS +120
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- UTA: Elo 47.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -129
- BOS +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.4 – 3.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +3 | UTA: Sebastian Cossa: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +17 Elo | BOS 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 324.3 | Goals scored | 2.326th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.0 | Goals allowed | 2.814th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+2.3 | Margin | −0.523rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3258.2% | Shot share | 47.1%22nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3292.0% | Save percentage | 90.9%10th of 32 |
| 7th of 292–1 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 29 |
| 28th of 321476 | Opponent Elo | 15138th of 32 |
| 12th of 321515 | Elo rating | 150115th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  UTA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–47 | 57–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–36 | 12–17 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 45–14 |
| Overs–unders | 47–41 | 45–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 2–2 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.
