Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals2
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Tim StutzlePoints3
Bruins- James HagensGoals1
- James HagensPoints1
Scoring summary
- P33:30James Hagens Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none4–1
- P25:19Michael Amadio Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (2), Nick Cousins (1)4–0
- P21:06Drake Batherson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Tim Stützle (2)3–0
- P19:22Tim Stützle Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P17:39Tim Stützle Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:39Tim Stützle Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (1)OTT 1 – 0 BOS · OTT 52% → 67% +15OTT 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P19:22Tim Stützle Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneOTT 2 – 0 BOS · OTT 67% → 80% +13OTT 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P21:06Drake Batherson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Tim Stützle (2)OTT 3 – 0 BOS · OTT 83% → 92% +9OTT 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P25:19Michael Amadio Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (2), Nick Cousins (1)OTT 4 – 0 BOS · OTT 93% → 97% +4OTT 93% → 97%+4 pts
- P33:30James Hagens Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneOTT 4 – 1 BOS · BOS <1% → 2% +1BOS <1% → 2%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 52%
- ML OTT -118 / BOS -102
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- OTT: Elo 47.5%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- OTT -107
- BOS +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.8 – 2.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +4 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +17 Elo | BOS 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.2% | Shot share | 47.6%26th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 90.3%7th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 10th of 3221–20 | Road vs home | 29–121st of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 32 |
| 10th of 321524 | Elo rating | 150614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  OTT |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–45 | 57–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–37 | 12–17 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 45–14 |
| Overs–unders | 44–42 | 45–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 7–4 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.