Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Nick PaulGoals1
- Chris TanevAssists1
- Nick PaulPoints1
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals1
- Jack EichelAssists1
- Jack EichelPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Trevor Connelly Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Kirill Marchenko Goal Wrist Shot1–1
- SO0:00Braeden Bowman Goal Wrist Shot1–1
- P23:58Jack Eichel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P21:12Brett Howden Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Mitch Marner (2), William Karlsson (1)3–2
- P117:36Mark Stone Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (9), Ivan Barbashev (4)3–1
- P18:37Nick Paul Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (2), Gavin McKenna (2)3–0
- P13:20Easton Cowan Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Tanev (1)2–0
- P10:34Jack Roslovic Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Auston Matthews (4), Kirill Marchenko (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:34Jack Roslovic Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Auston Matthews (4), Kirill Marchenko (3)TOR 1 – 0 VGK · TOR 40% → 54% +15TOR 40% → 54%+15 pts
- P13:20Easton Cowan Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Tanev (1)TOR 2 – 0 VGK · TOR 55% → 69% +14TOR 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P18:37Nick Paul Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (2), Gavin McKenna (2)TOR 3 – 0 VGK · TOR 71% → 83% +12TOR 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P21:12Brett Howden Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Mitch Marner (2), William Karlsson (1)TOR 3 – 2 VGK · VGK 24% → 40% +16VGK 24% → 40%+16 pts
- P23:58Jack Eichel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 3 – 3 VGK · VGK 39% → 58% +19VGK 39% → 58%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 60%
- ML TOR +142 / VGK -170
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- VGK: Elo 63.6%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- VGK -152
- TOR +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.5 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −2 | TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +97 Elo | VGK 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 66.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.8 | Goals scored | 4.34th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.59th of 32 |
| 18th of 320.0 | Margin | +1.82nd of 32 |
| 12th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 56.9%4th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.2%18th of 32 |
| 18th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 144732nd of 32 |
| 27th of 321471 | Elo rating | 15365th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  TOR |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–48 | 46–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–26 | 23–53 |
| Underdog | 27–22 | 23–5 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 52–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–4 VGK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.