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Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Scripps Sports, KCOP, Prime Video (Local)

Away

Ducks

1-0-0

4–3

at

Home

Golden Knights

1-1-0

ANA 34%VGK 66%

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T-Mobile Arena · ESPN+, Scripps Sports, KCOP, Prime Video (Local)

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.

VGK favored ANA favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3VGK50%ANA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Ducks
Golden Knights

Scoring summary

  • P317:10Braeden Bowman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (1), Brayden McNabb (3)4–3
  • P36:07Tomas Hertl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (1), Jack Eichel (4)4–2
  • P34:38Shea Theodore Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Howden (1), Jack Eichel (3)4–1
  • P27:03Leo Carlsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony-John (AJ) Greer (1), Cutter Gauthier (1)4–0
  • P22:28Jeff Malott Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Tim Washe (1), Jackson LaCombe (1)3–0
  • P21:33Alex Killorn Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Noah Warren (1), Mikael Granlund (1)2–0
  • P119:52Beckett Sennecke Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (1), Tristan Luneau (1)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P119:52Beckett Sennecke Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (1), Tristan Luneau (1)ANA 1 – 0 VGK · ANA 37% → 55% +18
  2. P21:33Alex Killorn Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Noah Warren (1), Mikael Granlund (1)ANA 2 – 0 VGK · ANA 55% → 72% +17
  3. P22:28Jeff Malott Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Tim Washe (1), Jackson LaCombe (1)ANA 3 – 0 VGK · ANA 73% → 86% +13
  4. P27:03Leo Carlsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony-John (AJ) Greer (1), Cutter Gauthier (1)ANA 4 – 0 VGK · ANA 88% → 95% +7
  5. P36:07Tomas Hertl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (1), Jack Eichel (4)ANA 4 – 2 VGK · VGK 2% → 9% +7

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Golden Knights 66%

SolidMiss
ANA 34%VGK 66%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.

Market
VGK 66%
ML ANA +180 / VGK -218
Pre-line forecast
VGK 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
VGK 63%
Ratings vs. market
−3.2 pts
VGK: Elo 62.6%, market 65.7%
Fair odds
VGK -192
ANA +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
ANA 2.8 – 3.7 VGK
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorANAVGKWhy
Team rating14781532Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies0−1ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsVGK +89 EloVGK 62.6%
Market-implied ratingsVGK 57.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastVGK 58.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastVGK 65.7%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Anaheim Ducks and Vegas Golden Knights compared, with each team's league rank
ANAStatVGK
10th of 323.3Goals scored3.214th of 32
29th of 323.5Goals allowed3.013th of 32
19th of 32−0.2Margin+0.213th of 32
6th of 3252.1%Shot share54.3%3rd of 32
30th of 3288.3%Save percentage88.4%28th of 32
27th of 322–8Last 107–32nd of 32
18th of 3219–22Road vs home20–2121st of 32
29th of 321496Opponent Elo149532nd of 32
24th of 321478Elo rating15325th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

DucksGolden Knights
14001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

Last season (2025-26)ANAVGK
Puck line43–5146–58
Last 105–56–4
Favorite6–2923–53
Underdog37–2223–5
Overs–unders54–4052–52
Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ANA 8–9 VGK in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.