Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Mitch MarnerGoals1
- Brayden McNabbAssists1
- Victor OlofssonPoints1
Canucks- Jonathan LekkerimakiGoals1
- Luke SchennAssists1
- Paul CotterPoints1
Scoring summary
- P218:28Marc Gatcomb Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Braeden Bowman (1), Nic Dowd (2)3–2
- P217:54Jonathan Lekkerimaki Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (4), Luke Schenn (2)2–2
- P214:30Victor Olofsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (1), Jack Eichel (5)2–1
- P29:01Mitch Marner Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (4)1–1
- P118:52Paul Cotter Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (5), Elias Pettersson (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:52Paul Cotter Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (5), Elias Pettersson (4)VGK 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 32% → 49% +17VAN 32% → 49%+17 pts
- P29:01Mitch Marner Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (4)VGK 1 – 1 VAN · VGK 46% → 66% +20VGK 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P214:30Victor Olofsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (1), Jack Eichel (5)VGK 2 – 1 VAN · VGK 64% → 82% +18VGK 64% → 82%+18 pts
- P217:54Jonathan Lekkerimaki Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (4), Luke Schenn (2)VGK 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 17% → 37% +19VAN 17% → 37%+19 pts
- P218:28Marc Gatcomb Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Braeden Bowman (1), Nic Dowd (2)VGK 3 – 2 VAN · VGK 63% → 83% +20VGK 63% → 83%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 71%
- ML VGK -290 / VAN +235
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- VGK: Elo 64.1%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- VGK -249
- VAN +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.9 – 2.6 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −9 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +101 Elo | VGK 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 70.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 69.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.932nd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −1.232nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 46.5%28th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 88.0%32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 18th of 3219–22 | Road vs home | 9–3232nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 6th of 321529 | Elo rating | 142931st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  VGK |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–58 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–53 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 23–5 | 37–35 |
| Overs–unders | 52–52 | 47–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 9–2 VAN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.