Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Paul CotterGoals2
- Filip HronekAssists2
- Paul CotterPoints2
Oilers- Evan BouchardGoals3
- Evan BouchardAssists2
- Evan BouchardPoints5
Scoring summary
- OT1:59Paul Cotter Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Max Sasson (1)6–5
- P319:17Vasily Podkolzin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (1), Evan Bouchard (2)5–5
- P39:20Evan Bouchard Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (2)5–4
- P38:56Vasily Podkolzin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (1), Ryan Shea (1)5–3
- P35:15Elias Pettersson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (2), Brock Boeser (1)5–2
- P32:55Max Sasson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Drew O'Connor (1), Linus Karlsson (1)4–2
- P31:10Jonathan Lekkerimaki Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (1), Jamieson Oleksiak (1)3–2
- P214:34Evan Bouchard Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (1), Alex Formenton (1)2–2
- P22:07Marco Rossi Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Liam Ohgren (1), Filip Hronek (1)2–1
- P116:26Evan Bouchard Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P19:51Paul Cotter Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:34Evan Bouchard Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (1), Alex Formenton (1)VAN 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 43% → 65% +22EDM 43% → 65%+22 pts
- P31:10Jonathan Lekkerimaki Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (1), Jamieson Oleksiak (1)VAN 3 – 2 EDM · VAN 37% → 63% +26VAN 37% → 63%+26 pts
- P32:55Max Sasson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Drew O'Connor (1), Linus Karlsson (1)VAN 4 – 2 EDM · VAN 64% → 85% +21VAN 64% → 85%+21 pts
- P319:17Vasily Podkolzin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (1), Evan Bouchard (2)VAN 5 – 5 EDM · EDM <1% → 53% +53EDM <1% → 53%+53 pts
- OT1:59Paul Cotter Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Max Sasson (1)VAN 6 – 5 EDM · VAN 45% → 93% +49VAN 45% → 93%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 72%
- ML VAN +245 / EDM -305
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- EDM: Elo 65.6%, market 72.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -260
- VAN +260 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.6 – 3.9 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −13 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +112 Elo | EDM 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 71.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 70.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 72.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | +0.214th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 52.7%5th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 88.3%29th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 27th of 3216–25 | Road vs home | 22–1914th of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149531st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321425 | Elo rating | 151211th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  VAN |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–44 | 38–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 26–44 |
| Underdog | 37–35 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 53–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 9–9 EDM in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.