Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists4
- Connor McDavidPoints5
Canucks- Marco RossiGoals2
- Elias PetterssonAssists2
- Marco RossiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:31Jamie Oleksiak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (4), Elias Pettersson (2)9–7
- P39:26Leon Draisaitl Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (6), Vasily Podkolzin (1)9–6
- P37:37Elias Pettersson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (1), Brock Boeser (2)8–6
- P34:43Marco Rossi Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Arshdeep Bains (1), Luke Schenn (1)8–5
- P31:53Marco Rossi Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Lekkerimaki (1), Tom Willander (1)8–4
- P219:59Arshdeep Bains Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (1), Filip Hronek (3)8–3
- P28:23Kasperi Kapanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none8–2
- P27:49Connor McDavid Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none7–2
- P25:47Brock Boeser Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (1), Jamie Oleksiak (2)6–2
- P25:04Trent Frederic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Isaac Howard (1)6–1
- P24:31Paul Cotter Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Liam Ohgren (2)5–1
- P20:27Leon Draisaitl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (4), Connor McDavid (5)5–0
- P119:32Ryan Shea Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (4), Leon Draisaitl (2)4–0
- P114:42, assists: none3–0
- P114:26Owen Michaels Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (1), Evan Bouchard (3)2–0
- P19:26Vasily Podkolzin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (1), Connor McDavid (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:26Vasily Podkolzin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (1), Connor McDavid (3)EDM 1 – 0 VAN · EDM 65% → 78% +13EDM 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P114:26Owen Michaels Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (1), Evan Bouchard (3)EDM 2 – 0 VAN · EDM 78% → 88% +10EDM 78% → 88%+10 pts
- P114:42, assists: noneEDM 3 – 0 VAN · EDM 88% → 95% +6EDM 88% → 95%+6 pts
- P119:32Ryan Shea Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (4), Leon Draisaitl (2)EDM 4 – 0 VAN · EDM 95% → 98% +3EDM 95% → 98%+3 pts
- P37:37Elias Pettersson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (1), Brock Boeser (2)EDM 8 – 6 VAN · VAN <1% → 4% +3VAN <1% → 4%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 66%
- ML EDM -218 / VAN +180
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.7 pts
- EDM: Elo 54.1%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- EDM -192
- VAN +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.7 – 2.8 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −21 | −4 | EDM: Devon Levi: team allows 0.52 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +28 Elo | EDM 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 59.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.932nd of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −1.232nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.7% | Shot share | 46.5%28th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 88.0%32nd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 18th of 3219–22 | Road vs home | 9–3232nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 12th of 321509 | Elo rating | 142831st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  EDM |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–50 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–44 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 37–35 |
| Overs–unders | 53–35 | 47–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 9–10 VAN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.