Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals1
- Joel FarabeeAssists1
- Matt CoronatoPoints1
Canucks- Liam OhgrenGoals1
- Linus KarlssonAssists2
- Liam OhgrenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:16Aatu Räty Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (3), Elias Pettersson (3)1–4
- P316:33Drew O'Connor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (2)1–3
- P39:04Elias Pettersson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Liam Ohgren (3), Tom Willander (3)1–2
- P31:28Liam Ohgren Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (2), Tom Willander (2)1–1
- P114:51Matt Coronato Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zayne Parekh (1), Joel Farabee (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:51Matt Coronato Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zayne Parekh (1), Joel Farabee (1)CGY 1 – 0 VAN · CGY 50% → 66% +16CGY 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P31:28Liam Ohgren Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (2), Tom Willander (2)CGY 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 26% → 50% +24VAN 26% → 50%+24 pts
- P39:04Elias Pettersson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Liam Ohgren (3), Tom Willander (3)CGY 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 50% → 80% +30VAN 50% → 80%+30 pts
- P316:33Drew O'Connor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (2)CGY 1 – 3 VAN · VAN 94% → >99% +6VAN 94% → >99%+6 pts
- P317:16Aatu Räty Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (3), Elias Pettersson (3)CGY 1 – 4 VAN · VAN >99% → >99% +0VAN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 50%
- ML CGY -110 / VAN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- VAN: Elo 51.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- VAN -100
- CGY -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.3 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +12 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · VAN: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +13 Elo | VAN 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.932nd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −1.232nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 46.5%28th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.0%32nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3211–30 | Road vs home | 9–3232nd of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 29th of 321459 | Elo rating | 142531st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  CGY |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–37 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 36–29 | 37–35 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 47–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 5–6 VAN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.