Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Vince DunnGoals1
- Jared McCannAssists3
- Vince DunnPoints3
Flames- Ryan StromeGoals1
- Yegor SharangovichAssists1
- Ryan StromePoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:01Kaapo Kakko Goal (1) Poke, assists: Jared McCann (3), Matty Beniers (1)6–1
- P316:35Ryan Strome Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (1), Connor Zary (1)5–1
- P34:04Matty Beniers Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (2)5–0
- P33:13Chandler Stephenson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Vince Dunn (2), Joey Daccord (1)4–0
- P119:30Freddy Gaudreau Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (1), Ryker Evans (1)3–0
- P19:42Vince Dunn Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (1), Shane Wright (1)2–0
- P19:10Jordan Eberle Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (1), Vince Dunn (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:10Jordan Eberle Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (1), Vince Dunn (1)SEA 1 – 0 CGY · SEA 50% → 65% +15SEA 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P19:42Vince Dunn Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (1), Shane Wright (1)SEA 2 – 0 CGY · SEA 65% → 78% +13SEA 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P119:30Freddy Gaudreau Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (1), Ryker Evans (1)SEA 3 – 0 CGY · SEA 81% → 91% +10SEA 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P33:13Chandler Stephenson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Vince Dunn (2), Joey Daccord (1)SEA 4 – 0 CGY · SEA 98% → >99% +2SEA 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P34:04Matty Beniers Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (2)SEA 5 – 0 CGY · SEA >99% → >99% +0SEA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 50%
- ML SEA -108 / CGY -112
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- CGY: Elo 56.2%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- CGY -102
- SEA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.7 – 2.8 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −2 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +43 Elo | CGY 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.630th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 48.4%24th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.3%6th of 32 |
| 27th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 29th of 3215–26 | Road vs home | 23–1811th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 32 |
| 29th of 321460 | Elo rating | 146628th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  SEA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–35 | 45–37 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 41–28 | 36–29 |
| Overs–unders | 36–46 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 6–5 CGY in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.