Vegas Golden Knights at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals2
- Jack EichelAssists3
- Tomas HertlPoints4
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Kaapo KakkoAssists2
- Kaapo KakkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:00Jared McCann Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (2), Kaapo Kakko (3)6–2
- P39:43Tomas Hertl Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (3), Jack Eichel (8)6–1
- P34:52Shane Wright Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (2), Cale Fleury (1)5–1
- P219:29Jack Eichel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–0
- P213:07Victor Olofsson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (2), Trevor Connelly (1)4–0
- P21:43Mark Stone Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (7)3–0
- P115:58Tomas Hertl Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (2), Jack Eichel (6)2–0
- P113:02Victor Olofsson Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Rasmus Andersson (1), Tomas Hertl (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:02Victor Olofsson Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Rasmus Andersson (1), Tomas Hertl (1)VGK 1 – 0 SEA · VGK 59% → 74% +15VGK 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P115:58Tomas Hertl Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (2), Jack Eichel (6)VGK 2 – 0 SEA · VGK 74% → 86% +12VGK 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P21:43Mark Stone Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (7)VGK 3 – 0 SEA · VGK 87% → 94% +7VGK 87% → 94%+7 pts
- P213:07Victor Olofsson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (2), Trevor Connelly (1)VGK 4 – 0 SEA · VGK 96% → >99% +3VGK 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P219:29Jack Eichel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 5 – 0 SEA · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 60%
- ML VGK -166 / SEA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 53.7%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- VGK -150
- SEA +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.5 – 3.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | 0 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +26 Elo | VGK 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 4.35th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 1.72nd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+1.0 | Margin | +2.72nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3259.0% | Shot share | 48.5%19th of 32 |
| 21st of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 95.2%1st of 32 |
| 1st of 281–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 27 |
| 31st of 321445 | Opponent Elo | 147229th of 32 |
| 7th of 321531 | Elo rating | 146828th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  VGK |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–58 | 47–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 23–53 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 23–5 | 41–28 |
| Overs–unders | 52–52 | 36–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 6–5 SEA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.