Seattle Kraken at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Bobby McMannGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists1
- Bobby McMannPoints1
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists1
- Connor McDavidPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:55Connor McDavid Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (2)1–3
- P317:33Leon Draisaitl Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (7), Ryan Shea (2)1–2
- P29:06Bobby McMann Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (1), Chandler Stephenson (1)1–1
- P12:51Owen Michaels Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Formenton (2)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:51Owen Michaels Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Formenton (2)SEA 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 64% → 77% +13EDM 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P29:06Bobby McMann Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (1), Chandler Stephenson (1)SEA 1 – 1 EDM · SEA 22% → 39% +18SEA 22% → 39%+18 pts
- P317:33Leon Draisaitl Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (7), Ryan Shea (2)SEA 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 53% → 97% +44EDM 53% → 97%+44 pts
- P318:55Connor McDavid Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (2)SEA 1 – 3 EDM · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 64%
- ML SEA +170 / EDM -205
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- EDM: Elo 59.2%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- EDM -181
- SEA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.8 – 3.7 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −23 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · EDM: Devon Levi: team allows 0.59 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +65 Elo | EDM 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 63.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 52.7%5th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 88.3%29th of 32 |
| 27th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 29th of 3215–26 | Road vs home | 22–1914th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149531st of 32 |
| 28th of 321467 | Elo rating | 151211th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  SEA |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–35 | 38–50 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 26–44 |
| Underdog | 41–28 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 36–46 | 53–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–10 EDM in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.