Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Morgan FrostGoals1
- Joel FarabeeAssists1
- Morgan FrostPoints1
Kraken- Mackie SamoskevichGoals2
- Brandon MontourAssists2
- Mackie SamoskevichPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:04Jordan Eberle Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (3), Brandon Montour (2)1–6
- P314:25Morgan Frost Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Matvei Gridin (1), Joel Farabee (2)1–5
- P219:34Mackie Samoskevich Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (2), Jared McCann (4)0–5
- P211:58Shane Wright Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Berkly Catton (1), Vince Dunn (3)0–4
- P17:40Bobby McMann Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (2)0–3
- P14:40Mackie Samoskevich Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brandon Montour (1), Ryker Evans (2)0–2
- P12:22Berkly Catton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:22Berkly Catton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 59% → 73% +14SEA 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P14:40Mackie Samoskevich Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brandon Montour (1), Ryker Evans (2)CGY 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 73% → 84% +11SEA 73% → 84%+11 pts
- P17:40Bobby McMann Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (2)CGY 0 – 3 SEA · SEA 84% → 92% +8SEA 84% → 92%+8 pts
- P211:58Shane Wright Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Berkly Catton (1), Vince Dunn (3)CGY 0 – 4 SEA · SEA 96% → 99% +3SEA 96% → 99%+3 pts
- P219:34Mackie Samoskevich Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (2), Jared McCann (4)CGY 0 – 5 SEA · SEA >99% → >99% +0SEA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML CGY +136 / SEA -162
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.6%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -146
- CGY +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.5 – 3.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | SEA and CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −1 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +46 Elo | SEA 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.828th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 46.5%30th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.2%8th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3211–30 | Road vs home | 19–2226th of 32 |
| 19th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149923rd of 32 |
| 29th of 321455 | Elo rating | 146428th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  CGY |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–37 | 47–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 36–29 | 41–28 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 36–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 5–7 SEA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.