Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals1
- Auston MatthewsAssists1
- John TavaresPoints2
Mammoth- Mikhail SergachevGoals1
- Mikhail SergachevAssists1
- Mikhail SergachevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:01Gavin McKenna Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (7), Darren Raddysh (3)4–5
- P37:12John Tavares Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Stolarz (2)3–5
- P219:20MacKenzie Weegar Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (8), Nick Schmaltz (3)2–5
- P216:29Jack Roslovic Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (5), Auston Matthews (7)2–4
- P214:17Dylan Guenther Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (7), Kailer Yamamoto (2)1–4
- P25:16Auston Matthews Goal (5) Backhand, assists: John Tavares (3)1–3
- P24:01Mikhail Sergachev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (5), Kevin Stenlund (2)0–3
- P21:00Vincent Trocheck Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (6), Dylan Guenther (4)0–2
- P114:55Daniil But Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (1), Andrew Peeke (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:55Daniil But Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (1), Andrew Peeke (2)TOR 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 58% → 73% +15UTA 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P21:00Vincent Trocheck Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (6), Dylan Guenther (4)TOR 0 – 2 UTA · UTA 74% → 86% +12UTA 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P24:01Mikhail Sergachev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (5), Kevin Stenlund (2)TOR 0 – 3 UTA · UTA 87% → 94% +8UTA 87% → 94%+8 pts
- P25:16Auston Matthews Goal (5) Backhand, assists: John Tavares (3)TOR 1 – 3 UTA · TOR 5% → 13% +7TOR 5% → 13%+7 pts
- P311:01Gavin McKenna Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (7), Darren Raddysh (3)TOR 4 – 5 UTA · TOR 2% → 15% +13TOR 2% → 15%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 59%
- ML TOR +136 / UTA -162
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- UTA: Elo 59.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -146
- TOR +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.5 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | 0 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +68 Elo | UTA 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 59.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.76th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.56th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +1.28th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.0% | Shot share | 58.6%2nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.6%16th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 5th of 321520 | Opponent Elo | 149023rd of 32 |
| 24th of 321476 | Elo rating | 151512th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–1 UTA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.