Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals2
- William NylanderAssists3
- William NylanderPoints5
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Devon ToewsAssists1
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:21Auston Matthews Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–3
- P312:02Auston Matthews Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (6), Kirill Marchenko (4)5–3
- P217:33Easton Cowan Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (4), William Nylander (5)4–3
- P216:47William Nylander Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (6), Nick Paul (3)3–3
- P212:25Brock Nelson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none2–3
- P26:53William Nylander Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Gavin McKenna (3), Auston Matthews (5)2–2
- P115:14Nathan MacKinnon Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (4), Martin Necas (3)1–2
- P110:46Nathan MacKinnon Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (4), Devon Toews (3)1–1
- P13:03Nick Blankenburg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (4), Nick Paul (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:53William Nylander Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Gavin McKenna (3), Auston Matthews (5)TOR 2 – 2 COL · TOR 21% → 38% +17TOR 21% → 38%+17 pts
- P212:25Brock Nelson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneTOR 2 – 3 COL · COL 61% → 80% +18COL 61% → 80%+18 pts
- P216:47William Nylander Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (6), Nick Paul (3)TOR 3 – 3 COL · TOR 20% → 40% +20TOR 20% → 40%+20 pts
- P217:33Easton Cowan Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (4), William Nylander (5)TOR 4 – 3 COL · TOR 40% → 63% +23TOR 40% → 63%+23 pts
- P312:02Auston Matthews Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (6), Kirill Marchenko (4)TOR 5 – 3 COL · TOR 80% → 97% +17TOR 80% → 97%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 66%
- ML TOR +185 / COL -225
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- COL: Elo 68.2%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -197
- TOR +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 3.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −7 | TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +133 Elo | COL 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 70.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 70.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 5.81st of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +3.01st of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 55.1%8th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%16th of 32 |
| 22nd of 300–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 11th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 147728th of 32 |
| 28th of 321469 | Elo rating | 15742nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  TOR |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–48 | 48–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–26 | 46–47 |
| Underdog | 27–22 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 42–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–3 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.