Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Cale MakarGoals2
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Cale MakarPoints3
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- Yegor SharangovichAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:41Jaden Schwartz Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (2), Brent Burns (3)7–3
- P38:28Kevin Bahl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (3), Yegor Sharangovich (2)6–3
- P37:17Mikael Backlund Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Strome (1)6–2
- P36:34Jaden Schwartz Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: T.J. Hughes (1), Brett Kulak (3)6–1
- P35:35Cale Makar Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (5), Nazem Kadri (3)5–1
- P211:39Nathan MacKinnon Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Zachary L'Heureux (1)4–1
- P29:16Cale Makar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (4), Brett Kulak (2)3–1
- P26:45Devon Toews Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Juulsen (1), Parker Kelly (4)2–1
- P117:30Adam Klapka Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Castagna (1)1–1
- P115:54Devon Toews Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (3), Brock Nelson (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:54Devon Toews Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (3), Brock Nelson (3)COL 1 – 0 CGY · COL 65% → 79% +14COL 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P117:30Adam Klapka Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Castagna (1)COL 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 21% → 35% +14CGY 21% → 35%+14 pts
- P26:45Devon Toews Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Juulsen (1), Parker Kelly (4)COL 2 – 1 CGY · COL 63% → 80% +16COL 63% → 80%+16 pts
- P29:16Cale Makar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (4), Brett Kulak (2)COL 3 – 1 CGY · COL 80% → 91% +11COL 80% → 91%+11 pts
- P211:39Nathan MacKinnon Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Zachary L'Heureux (1)COL 4 – 1 CGY · COL 92% → 97% +6COL 92% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 68%
- ML COL -238 / CGY +195
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- COL: Elo 58.8%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- COL -208
- CGY +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.8 – 2.7 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −2 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +62 Elo | COL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 59.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 325.3 | Goals scored | 1.032nd of 32 |
| 11th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 5.332nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+2.7 | Margin | −4.332nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3256.6% | Shot share | 49.1%17th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 82.1%30th of 32 |
| 21st of 290–1 | Road vs home | 0–127th of 31 |
| 26th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 145130th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321570 | Elo rating | 145030th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  COL |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 48–47 | 45–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 46–47 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 36–29 |
| Overs–unders | 42–53 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 8–1 CGY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.