Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Jaden SchwartzAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints2
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Kyle ConnorPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:00Kyle Connor Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (2)2–3
- P312:35Fedor Svechkov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jaden Schwartz (3), Brett Kulak (1)2–2
- P218:16Cole Perfetti Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Dylan Samberg (2), Mark Scheifele (1)1–2
- P24:01Kyle Connor Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (1), Dylan Samberg (1)1–1
- P22:51Jaden Schwartz Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (1), Brent Burns (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:51Jaden Schwartz Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (1), Brent Burns (2)COL 1 – 0 WPG · COL 61% → 77% +16COL 61% → 77%+16 pts
- P24:01Kyle Connor Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (1), Dylan Samberg (1)COL 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 23% → 39% +16WPG 23% → 39%+16 pts
- P218:16Cole Perfetti Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Dylan Samberg (2), Mark Scheifele (1)COL 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 42% → 65% +24WPG 42% → 65%+24 pts
- P312:35Fedor Svechkov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jaden Schwartz (3), Brett Kulak (1)COL 2 – 2 WPG · COL 18% → 55% +37COL 18% → 55%+37 pts
- P319:00Kyle Connor Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (2)COL 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 48% → >99% +52WPG 48% → >99%+52 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 64%
- ML COL -198 / WPG +164
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- COL: Elo 56.9%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- COL -175
- WPG +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 2.9 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −11 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · WPG: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +48 Elo | COL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.3% | Shot share | 48.7%21st of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 89.3%20th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 1st of 3229–12 | Road vs home | 19–2226th of 32 |
| 29th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321573 | Elo rating | 149419th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  COL |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 48–47 | 37–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 46–47 | 12–34 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 25–11 |
| Overs–unders | 42–53 | 44–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–9 WPG in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.