St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Dalibor DvorskyGoals1
- Theo LindsteinAssists1
- Dalibor DvorskyPoints1
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals2
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists3
- Martin NecasPoints3
Scoring summary
- P32:34Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Theo Lindstein (1)1–6
- P218:25Martin Necas Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (1), Nathan MacKinnon (3)0–6
- P218:02Nicolas Roy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (3), Josh Manson (2)0–5
- P211:40Artturi Lehkonen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none0–4
- P25:38Josh Manson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (1), Parker Kelly (2)0–3
- P113:12Martin Necas Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (2), Artturi Lehkonen (1)0–2
- P14:09Cale Makar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (2), Nathan MacKinnon (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:09Cale Makar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (2), Nathan MacKinnon (1)STL 0 – 1 COL · COL 71% → 83% +11COL 71% → 83%+11 pts
- P113:12Martin Necas Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (2), Artturi Lehkonen (1)STL 0 – 2 COL · COL 82% → 91% +9COL 82% → 91%+9 pts
- P25:38Josh Manson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (1), Parker Kelly (2)STL 0 – 3 COL · COL 92% → 97% +5COL 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P211:40Artturi Lehkonen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: noneSTL 0 – 4 COL · COL 98% → >99% +2COL 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P218:02Nicolas Roy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (3), Josh Manson (2)STL 0 – 5 COL · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 72%
- ML STL +240 / COL -298
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- COL: Elo 67.1%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- COL -255
- STL +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.6 – 3.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −9 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +124 Elo | COL 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 66.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 56.3%2nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 91.4%1st of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3217–24 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 32 |
| 27th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149629th of 32 |
| 14th of 321509 | Elo rating | 15702nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  STL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–35 | 48–47 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–23 | 46–47 |
| Underdog | 39–12 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 42–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–6 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.