Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals2
- Seth JonesAssists2
- Sam ReinhartPoints2
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Owen PowerAssists2
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:20Tage Thompson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (6), Peyton Krebs (4)3–5
- P37:15Noah Ostlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (2), Jack Quinn (2)3–4
- P213:41Sam Reinhart Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (1), Seth Jones (2)3–3
- P211:25Ryan McLeod Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (1), Owen Power (5)2–3
- P26:26Sam Reinhart Goal (1) Poke, assists: Seth Jones (1), Matthew Tkachuk (2)2–2
- P115:55Rasmus Dahlin Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (1), Tage Thompson (3)1–2
- P111:00Anton Lundell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (2), Sandis Vilmanis (1)1–1
- P15:58Josh Doan Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:55Rasmus Dahlin Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (1), Tage Thompson (3)FLA 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 51% → 67% +16BUF 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P26:26Sam Reinhart Goal (1) Poke, assists: Seth Jones (1), Matthew Tkachuk (2)FLA 2 – 2 BUF · FLA 31% → 49% +19FLA 31% → 49%+19 pts
- P211:25Ryan McLeod Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (1), Owen Power (5)FLA 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 51% → 71% +20BUF 51% → 71%+20 pts
- P213:41Sam Reinhart Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (1), Seth Jones (2)FLA 3 – 3 BUF · FLA 28% → 49% +21FLA 28% → 49%+21 pts
- P37:15Noah Ostlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (2), Jack Quinn (2)FLA 3 – 4 BUF · BUF 50% → 79% +28BUF 50% → 79%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 51%
- ML FLA -105 / BUF -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- BUF: Elo 57.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -104
- FLA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.7 – 2.8 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −2 | FLA: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +51 Elo | BUF 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 321.8 | Goals scored | 2.226th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.826th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.6 | Margin | −1.628th of 32 |
| 9th of 3254.0% | Shot share | 55.5%8th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 82.9%31st of 32 |
| 9th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 32 |
| 14th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 15th of 321503 | Elo rating | 15297th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 7–4 BUF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.