Florida Panthers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Lars EllerAssists1
- Brad MarchandPoints1
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals2
- Leo CarlssonAssists3
- Cutter GauthierPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:14Mikael Granlund Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Leo Carlsson (4), Cutter Gauthier (2)2–3
- P318:10Brad Marchand Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (2)2–2
- P20:47Cutter Gauthier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (1), Leo Carlsson (3)1–2
- P117:09Carter Verhaeghe Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Sam Bennett (2), Matthew Tkachuk (1)1–1
- P116:18Cutter Gauthier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (2), Leo Carlsson (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:18Cutter Gauthier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (2), Leo Carlsson (2)FLA 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 45% → 61% +17ANA 45% → 61%+17 pts
- P117:09Carter Verhaeghe Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Sam Bennett (2), Matthew Tkachuk (1)FLA 1 – 1 ANA · FLA 38% → 55% +17FLA 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P20:47Cutter Gauthier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (1), Leo Carlsson (3)FLA 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 45% → 63% +18ANA 45% → 63%+18 pts
- P318:10Brad Marchand Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (2)FLA 2 – 2 ANA · FLA 2% → 51% +49FLA 2% → 51%+49 pts
- OT4:14Mikael Granlund Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Leo Carlsson (4), Cutter Gauthier (2)FLA 2 – 3 ANA · ANA 49% → >99% +51ANA 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 56%
- ML FLA -142 / ANA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- FLA: Elo 50.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -129
- ANA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.4 – 3.1 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | 0 | FLA: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +1 Elo | FLA 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 52.1%6th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 88.3%30th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 24th of 3217–24 | Road vs home | 24–178th of 32 |
| 9th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149629th of 32 |
| 14th of 321508 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  FLA |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–52 | 43–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–40 | 6–29 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 37–22 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 54–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–3 ANA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.