Florida Panthers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals1
- Lars EllerAssists1
- Seth JonesPoints1
Kings- Alex LaferriereGoals1
- Erik HaulaAssists1
- Alex LaferrierePoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:20Matthew Tkachuk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (3)2–1
- P23:49Seth Jones Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (3)1–1
- P119:00Alex Laferriere Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (2)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:00Alex Laferriere Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (2)FLA 0 – 1 LA · LA 49% → 66% +17LA 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P23:49Seth Jones Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (3)FLA 1 – 1 LA · FLA 33% → 51% +18FLA 33% → 51%+18 pts
- P311:20Matthew Tkachuk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (3)FLA 2 – 1 LA · FLA 51% → 84% +33FLA 51% → 84%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 52%
- ML FLA -118 / LA -102
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- FLA: Elo 51.8%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- FLA -107
- LA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.8 – 2.7 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −8 | FLA: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +13 Elo | FLA 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 50.8%12th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 89.9%13th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 24th of 3217–24 | Road vs home | 15–2629th of 32 |
| 8th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 32 |
| 14th of 321506 | Elo rating | 147426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  FLA |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–52 | 32–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–40 | 11–41 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 40–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 4–2 LA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.