Minnesota Wild at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals3
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints4
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals1
- Matthew TkachukPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:56Kirill Kaprizov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P25:00Kirill Kaprizov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (1), Joel Eriksson Ek (2)3–1
- P22:18Matthew Tkachuk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P16:18Kirill Kaprizov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Shabanov (2), Quinn Hughes (5)2–0
- P10:53Matt Boldy Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (4), Kirill Kaprizov (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:53Matt Boldy Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (4), Kirill Kaprizov (2)MIN 1 – 0 FLA · MIN 45% → 59% +15MIN 45% → 59%+15 pts
- P16:18Kirill Kaprizov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Shabanov (2), Quinn Hughes (5)MIN 2 – 0 FLA · MIN 60% → 74% +14MIN 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P22:18Matthew Tkachuk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 2 – 1 FLA · FLA 21% → 36% +15FLA 21% → 36%+15 pts
- P25:00Kirill Kaprizov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (1), Joel Eriksson Ek (2)MIN 3 – 1 FLA · MIN 65% → 80% +16MIN 65% → 80%+16 pts
- P318:56Kirill Kaprizov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 4 – 1 FLA · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 55%
- ML MIN +114 / FLA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- FLA: Elo 53.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- FLA -123
- MIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.6 – 2.9 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +9 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · FLA: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +22 Elo | FLA 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.029th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.0 | Goals allowed | 2.03rd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.8 | Margin | 0.019th of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 54.9%9th of 32 |
| 6th of 3292.7% | Save percentage | 90.8%11th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321519 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 32 |
| 8th of 321530 | Elo rating | 150814th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  MIN |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–47 | 30–52 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–36 | 9–40 |
| Underdog | 31–11 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 54–39 | 47–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–2 FLA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.