Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Quinn HughesGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists1
- Quinn HughesPoints2
Lightning- John CarlsonGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- John CarlsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P214:01Blake Coleman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (1), Quinn Hughes (4)2–3
- P24:55John Carlson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (5), Jake Guentzel (3)1–3
- P22:32Quinn Hughes Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (3), Jared Spurgeon (3)1–2
- P16:02John Carlson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (4), Brayden Point (2)0–2
- P15:26Anthony Cirelli Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Erik Cernak (1), Brandon Hagel (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:26Anthony Cirelli Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Erik Cernak (1), Brandon Hagel (3)MIN 0 – 1 TB · TB 56% → 70% +14TB 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P16:02John Carlson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (4), Brayden Point (2)MIN 0 – 2 TB · TB 70% → 82% +12TB 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P22:32Quinn Hughes Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (3), Jared Spurgeon (3)MIN 1 – 2 TB · MIN 15% → 28% +13MIN 15% → 28%+13 pts
- P24:55John Carlson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (5), Jake Guentzel (3)MIN 1 – 3 TB · TB 73% → 86% +13TB 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P214:01Blake Coleman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (1), Quinn Hughes (4)MIN 2 – 3 TB · MIN 11% → 25% +14MIN 11% → 25%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 56%
- ML MIN +120 / TB -142
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- TB: Elo 53.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -129
- MIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.1 – 3.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −26 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · TB: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.66 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +22 Elo | TB 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.722nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 321.7 | Goals allowed | 2.36th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+1.3 | Margin | +0.313th of 32 |
| 14th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 60.0%1st of 32 |
| 4th of 3293.3% | Save percentage | 90.0%14th of 32 |
| 9th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 29 |
| 16th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150319th of 32 |
| 6th of 321532 | Elo rating | 15463rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  MIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–47 | 38–51 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 0–10 |
| Favorite | 15–36 | 27–50 |
| Underdog | 31–11 | 11–1 |
| Overs–unders | 54–39 | 43–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–3 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.