Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals1
- Nick SeelerAssists1
- Tyson FoersterPoints1
Lightning- Ilya MikheyevGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Ilya MikheyevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:53Brandon Hagel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (3)1–4
- P317:00Ilya Mikheyev Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Pontus Holmberg (1)1–3
- P27:22Tyson Foerster Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (1), Sean Couturier (2)1–2
- P20:17Pontus Holmberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (2), Zemgus Girgensons (1)0–2
- P116:05Brayden Point Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (2), Nikita Kucherov (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:05Brayden Point Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (2), Nikita Kucherov (2)PHI 0 – 1 TB · TB 64% → 78% +14TB 64% → 78%+14 pts
- P20:17Pontus Holmberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (2), Zemgus Girgensons (1)PHI 0 – 2 TB · TB 78% → 89% +11TB 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P27:22Tyson Foerster Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (1), Sean Couturier (2)PHI 1 – 2 TB · PHI 10% → 21% +11PHI 10% → 21%+11 pts
- P317:00Ilya Mikheyev Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Pontus Holmberg (1)PHI 1 – 3 TB · TB 96% → >99% +4TB 96% → >99%+4 pts
- P319:53Brandon Hagel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (3)PHI 1 – 4 TB · TB 100% → 100% +0TB 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 66%
- ML PHI +180 / TB -218
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- TB: Elo 62.7%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -192
- PHI +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.3 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +4 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +90 Elo | TB 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 64.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.72nd of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 51.3%9th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.2%11th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 7th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 25–156th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 20th of 321487 | Elo rating | 15433rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  PHI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 58–34 | 38–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 0–10 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 27–50 |
| Underdog | 47–18 | 11–1 |
| Overs–unders | 44–48 | 43–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–6 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.